Can You Get Lucky Mining Bitcoins in 2023?

Written by Lisa

December 28, 2022

can you get lucky mining bitcoins

This blog explains bitcoin mining luck to address the query of whether advanced miners or novices can get lucky when mining bitcoin. We’ve compiled all the information you require on bitcoin mining luck using a simple Q&A format.

Yes, you can get lucky when mining bitcoins, but it all depends on how many shares are actually submitted in a round versus how many are anticipated. For a Bitcoin solo miner, the chance is incredibly slim, almost unheard of.

Mining bitcoins involves a degree of chance, or probability. Consider giving lottery tickets to each miner in exchange for the hashing power they supply. Imagine, for illustration’s sake, that you contribute 1 EH/s of hashing power and that the network’s total hashing power is 100 EH/s. In this case, you would receive 1 of 100 lottery tickets. If you found the block reward, there is a 1% chance that you would win the lottery. Therefore, statistically, you should find one block for every 100 blocks discovered.

Imagine that you discovered 2 of the 100 blocks, which would indicate that you did so earlier than you should have based on statistics. Consider finding 0 of 100; you are lucky. You would be unlucky as a result. Statistically, 1 out of 100 (1%) blocks should be found on average over the long term, but there is short-term variance.

Can You Get Lucky and Mine a Whole Bitcoin?

You would receive 6.25 Bitcoin instead of the full amount for discovering a block. Now, finding a block by yourself without a sizable mining operation is theoretically possible but extremely, extremely unlikely. Consider it similar to playing the lottery, only with much lower odds.

Has Anyone Gotten Lucky Solo Mining BTC in 2022?

A Bitcoin miner from the Solo CK mining pool has solo mined a new block on the Bitcoin blockchain, earning a block reward of 6.25 BTC on Jan. 24 2022. (News Source)

What is the Possibility for Bitcoin Miner to Catch a Block?

Nowadays, solo mining is very reliant on chance. With just one ASIC machine, some people are attempting to mine Bitcoin, but they also have the chance to confirm the block and receive an astounding reward of 6.25 BTC! The amount of hashrate a solo miner uses for mining greatly affects the likelihood of finding a block.

The miner will probabilistically find every third block if it has a hashrate of 1/3 of the entire blockchain network.

How likely is it to find a block when mining alone using one of the best ASICs? Let’s look at this.

AntMiner S19 XP speed: 140 TH/s
Bitcoin Network Hashrate: 215,370,000 TH/s
Bitcoin Block Time:
10 minutes

The network hashrate for the aforementioned example is 1/1538357, according to AntMiner S19 XP. Every ten minutes, the miner’s chance of catching the block is 0.000065%. Accordingly, it will catch a block on average once every 1538357 blocks, or 10683 days, or every 29 years.

How Many Bitcoins Do You Get for Solving a Block

A miner will be rewarded with 6.25 bitcoins if they can successfully add a block to the blockchain. Approximately every four years, or every 210,000 blocks, the reward amount is cut in half.

What is Mining Pool Luck

Pool luck explains the difference between the number of shares required to find a particular block and the typical number of shares required based on the current network difficulty. If luck is greater than 100%, the pool required fewer shares than was anticipated for the specified difficulty.

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